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Blogs 2017-07-10T13:14:27+00:00

Assessing Expected Goals Models. Part 2: Anatomy of a Big Chance

I had intended Part 2 of this series to be about using expected goals (xG) models to predict match scores. But something more important came up. Jan Mullenberg recently discovered that the Opta Big Chance indicator was a very powerful predictor of goals. In Part 1 of this series, I found that [...]

By | July 17th, 2017|Categories: Football Analytics, On the Pitch, Recent Posts|Tags: |0 Comments

Assessing Expected Goals Models. Part 1: Shots

The football analytics world is awash with Expected Goals (xG) models.   An xG model estimates the probability of scoring a goal given the features of a shot such as its location, whether it was preceded by an assist and so on. Those new to this concept can find an explanation [...]

By | June 27th, 2017|Categories: Football Analytics, On the Pitch, Recent Posts|Tags: |0 Comments

Expected Goals and Unexpected Goals

Now the 2016 season has come to an end, and before we get into the next campaign  I thought it would be fun to look at something a bit less serious than securing a Champion's League place or avoiding relegation.  So let's look at great goals.  Of course, what makes a [...]

By | June 15th, 2017|Categories: Football Analytics, On the Pitch, Recent Posts|Tags: |0 Comments

Mapping Defensive Metrics

At a minimum, a description of a team's defensive performance should tell us how many shots are conceded, where they are conceded from, and how they are defended.  We already know quite a bit about first two aspects, but from a statistical point of view our knowledge of the third is still rather sketchy. [...]

By | May 9th, 2017|Categories: Football Analytics, On the Pitch, Recent Posts|0 Comments

Team Defensive Metrics

Up to now, football analytics has been a little lop-sided. One reason is that on-the-ball data has been readily available, but off-the-ball data has not, so the focus has been on attacking metrics, and defensive metrics have lagged behind. This balance will eventually be redressed by the adoption of tracking data, but this [...]

By | March 30th, 2017|Categories: Football Analytics, On the Pitch, Recent Posts|2 Comments