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Blogs 2017-07-10T13:14:27+00:00

Gravity: Part 1. A Metric for Event Importance

Some goal attempts are more important than others. 2-0 up, ten minutes to go, and a chance to score. Whether the goal goes in or whether it doesn't is unlikely to affect the outcome of the game. Not a lot of pressure on the striker really. How about a chance [...]

By | September 4th, 2017|Categories: Recent Posts|0 Comments

Assessing Expected Goals Models. Part 2: Anatomy of a Big Chance

I had intended Part 2 of this series to be about using expected goals (xG) models to predict match scores. But something more important came up. Jan Mullenberg recently discovered that the Opta Big Chance indicator was a very powerful predictor of goals. In Part 1 of this series, I found that [...]

By | July 17th, 2017|Categories: Football Analytics, On the Pitch, Recent Posts|Tags: |2 Comments

Assessing Expected Goals Models. Part 1: Shots

The football analytics world is awash with Expected Goals (xG) models.   An xG model estimates the probability of scoring a goal given the features of a shot such as its location, whether it was preceded by an assist and so on. Those new to this concept can find an explanation [...]

By | June 27th, 2017|Categories: Football Analytics, On the Pitch, Recent Posts|Tags: |0 Comments