What makes countries good at football?

The 2018 World Cup  is now reaching its climax, and some of the most fancied nations have already returned back home.  But World Cup upsets aside, what makes a country good at football? I thought it would be worth updating a regression model I built some years ago in [...]

By |July 9th, 2018|Categories: Recent Posts|0 Comments

How Lucky is Top Tier English Football?

A recurring question in sport is the extent to which skill or luck determine the outcome.  Back in 2012, Michael Maubisson the Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital Management, published a book exploring the relative contributions of skill and luck in the domains of sport, business and investing. As [...]

By |May 27th, 2018|Categories: Football Analytics, Off the Pitch, Recent Posts|0 Comments

Binary Football in the Premier League 1992-2017

Binary matches are matches that finish 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, or 1-1. Between the start of Premier League in 1992 and the end of the 2016/17 season  there have been 3,750 binary matches, or 38% of the total. Figure 1 suggests that the amount of binary football has been dropping [...]

By |April 7th, 2018|Categories: Recent Posts|0 Comments

MPR: An xG Statistic for Non-Specialists

In 2017 the BBC began reporting 'Expected Goals' for matches featured on its Match Of The Day program, and Sky introduced the statistic on its Monday Night Football show. Expected Goals or (xG) began life as a hockey statistic; it summarizes the value of the shooting opportunities enjoyed by a [...]

By |March 13th, 2018|Categories: Recent Posts|2 Comments

10:7. The Gap between the Championship and the Premier League

This season the three teams promoted to the Premiership – Brighton, Huddersfield and Newcastle – are doing better than expected; none of them are currently involved in a relegation battle, and at this point in the season with 29 games played,  they are lying 10th, 15th and 16th respectively.  [...]

By |March 5th, 2018|Categories: Recent Posts|0 Comments