Expected Goals

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Assessing Expected Goals Models. Part 2: Anatomy of a Big Chance

I had intended Part 2 of this series to be about using expected goals (xG) models to predict match scores. But something more important came up. Jan Mullenberg recently discovered that the Opta Big Chance [...]

2017-07-19T06:56:12+00:00 July 17th, 2017|Football Analytics, On the Pitch, Recent Posts|2 Comments

Assessing Expected Goals Models. Part 1: Shots

The football analytics world is awash with Expected Goals (xG) models.   An xG model estimates the probability of scoring a goal given the features of a shot such as its location, whether it [...]

2017-07-19T10:52:25+00:00 June 27th, 2017|Football Analytics, On the Pitch, Recent Posts|0 Comments